Job Outlook for 2009 and BeyondHow would you feel if the job you've been doing for most of your life just moved offshore without any warning? What if you just spent several years getting an education for what you thought would be a very hot job but later turned out to be a very bad choice? How would you like to know the secrets to choosing a satisfying career that will also be a hot job? By understanding the major trends that are affecting our lives, you will be able to play an active role in planning and directing your career. By understanding these trends you will have a better chance of seeing the big changes before they hit. This look into the future will show you the hot jobs that are expected to have high demand and some that aren't. But more importantly this article will show you the basics of "trend spotting" so that you can make your own intelligent career choices. If you are not interested in "the how and the why" of looking into the future of careers and jobs, simply click here to jump to the list of "Hot Jobs For The Future." What do you want to do now?
These traditional businesses will see change, but not overnight obsolescence:
The need to save time We have only seen the first wave of automation in our lives. The effect so far has been to eliminate jobs involving highly repetitive tasks. The net effect has been fewer "unskilled" jobs. Automation is the result of the need to reduce cost which in turn is driven by a company's need to become more competitive, to be able to grow market share, and to generate higher earnings for investors. Automation, one of the first methods for reducing cost, had been a big trend between 1950 and 2000. Jobs that were not easily mechanized, such as many Customer Support Jobs, have already been moved to countries where the cost of labor is cheaper. Most of these jobs have been relocated to Mexico, Taiwan, India and China. Ten years from now, as the labor costs in those countries rise, the jobs may move to Africa or North Korea. The next phase of automation will not occur in the factory, but in our homes, in our lives, and in the information that we use. The last wave of automation in the home was to mechanize simple repetitive tasks such as dish washing and clothes washing. Home automation is driven by the need to save time. What are the next opportunities to save time in the home:
Data Entry, Programming, Tech Support and Customer Service Jobs A new trend dubbed "Offshoring" which became obvious in ~1998 is for entry level "knowledge worker" jobs such as programming, customer service, tech support, and accounting to be moved to countries with English speaking lower cost workers. This trend is just getting started and it could hollow out the English speaking economies of North America and Europe. A large portion of programming, tech support, data entry, and accounting jobs can be handled remotely from countries such as India where they speak perfectly polite Queen's English, and where they have excellent educational systems. This puts many lucrative jobs at risk. Even extremely high tech, high skill jobs such as Analog Integrated Circuit Designers have started moving offshore to India and China. Taiwan already has several home grown integrated circuit design houses. Eventually, Silicon Valley companies will no longer be willing to pay high prices for local circuit design talent, they will use talent in China and India whenever possible. Unless the government intervenes, English speaking countries with low labor cost and well educated people will pull high paying hot jobs out of the United States and Europe. What does this mean for someone just now planning their career. Proximity and creativity are the key. You really have two choices: Look for a job that requires a very high level of skill or creativity such as being a writer, designer, musician, inventor, marketing strategist, or film actor. Learn a trade or skill that requires hands on presence such as a carpenter, nurse, physician, dental hygienist, or hair stylist. Essentially you want to pick a job that requires your physical presence and that can not easily be done remotely. Combining proximity with creativity in a career gives you added security. Does this mean you should panic and get out of software development or any other high tech, high paying job? It depends. The first projects to move offshore are usually the most simple, low risk projects. Adding distance and cultural differences almost always adds time and complexity to any development project. The types of projects that will stay onshore:
Increased Traffic for Delivery Services
Home delivery has been on the rise and will continue to be driven by the need to save time. If home grocery delivery ever takes off, and it looks like it will the second time around, the demand for drivers and truck mechanics will increase even more. This trend should continue until someone invents a Star Trek - like teleportation system or replicator system. So don't hold your breath, delivery services look very, very good for a long time to come.
Entertainment and Content Creation Look Very, Very Good
Someone still needs to write the books, the screen plays, the TV shows, the music etc. Positions requiring a high level of creativity and originality should still be highly valued. The impact of computer simulation on actors is still an unknown and does present some risk. As compute power grows over the next decade, the ability to completely and believably simulate an actor will become widely available. Reality TV will have a minor impact on the demand for actors. Unique personalities and talented people will always catch our interests and will be in high demand, at least until we tire of them.
Less Demand For Most Retail Jobs and Cashiers
One of the more positive trends in retail was started by Walmart. Employing older, retired people to man the store floor was a brilliant move and a win-win for everyone. Demand for cashiers will gradually decline as stores install self service scanners and checkout. Home Depot and certain grocery stores began widespread use of automated self checkout in ~2002 to 2003. There will always be cashier positions, just less of them. What about stocking clerks, those folks that come in at night to load up the shelves? Same as most retail store positions. It's work that has to be done, even in the giant warehouse stores. But if you can buy it online and get it faster and cheaper, then watch out.
Marketing Looks Very Good
We think Strategic Marketing will become even more critical as companies find they need new and better strategies to succeed. The Aging Population Trend The trend towards a growing older population that is living longer is already creating high demand in products and services tailored to this demographic. Home healthcare and nursing homes are just two areas to benefit. We see healthcare as a great field for many years to come. Insurance companies, politicians and trial lawyers will unfortunately continue their negative impact on this critical field for some time. None the less, even with breakthrough medical technologies, people will continue to need healthcare workers. One threat however is if the politicians reduce the licensing requirements for medical professionals, allowing less educated, possibly poorly trained people into this field. Healthcare needs to be high quality.
The Vanishing Middleman
Who are the middlemen? Middlemen are found between the manufacturer and the end customer. Usually this is sales people and retailers. For instance, if you can purchase your car over the Internet, why go through a car salesman. If you can purchase airplane tickets over the Internet, directly from the airline, why use a travel agent. If you must be a middleman be sure you know how to add value and how to differentiate yourself from the competition.
Energy Shortages
Expect to see more products that save energy such as solid state electronic lighting and more efficient, but more complicated home appliances. Alternative forms of energy and energy storage will spawn new industries. Home size fuel cells will become available. Photovoltaic cells may finally become financially attractive. Fighting over oil reserves will continue until breakthroughs in energy take place.
Increased Leisure Time, Sorry No
Statistics show that people today are working longer hours than their parents. Thus less leisure time. Although most people don't have more leisure time they now know that and thus value their free time more highly than ever before.
A More Connected Teen and Sub Teen Generation
In growing up with the internet, they will be more comfortable and more adept with it than any prior generation. Statistics are showing that most students now use the internet as their sole source of research and help when doing homework and term papers. What does this say for going to the library? The protective barrier of the home now has a crack in it where on-line marketers push their wares to the youngest generation.
Meals On Demand
Hot Jobs for the Future Based on macro trends seen today, the careers listed below should be in relatively high demand throughout the next 10 years. Almost all jobs, no matter how secure, will experience ups and downs due to the economy and unexpected changes in technology. Thus there is no guarantee. The key to survival and winning in the career game is to be the best at what you do. Even in tough times, the people who have a reputation for being the best in their field will do better than most. The key to being the best in your field is to do the type of work that you are truly passionate about.
Source: CareerPlanner.com |
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